3 Reasons Tesla Is Likely to Spark Teslamania in China

  Electric-vehicle maker Tesla Motors , which crushed earnings' estimates and provided a better-than-expected 2014 forecast when it reported its fourth-quarter results recently, starts shipping its Model S sedan to Chinese buyers this spring.

  While Tesla doesn't provide pre-order data, demand in China is obviously strong for the 265-mile-range EV. CEO Elon Musk stated on the earnings call: "[B]ased on current trends it seems unlikely that we'll be able to satisfy demand in China this year." Additionally, according to the earnings release: "Already, the Beijing store is our largest and most active retail location in the world."

  There are numerous reasons the Chinese are likely to snatch up the Model S (as well as Tesla's planned Model X crossover and the more affordable generation-three model) at a higher rate than even optimistic forecasters are predicting. Before we get into the primary ones, a snapshot of China's auto market will show you why this market is considered the crown jewel among automakers.

  China's auto market: largest in the world and the fastest-growing

  Of the 82.8 million autos sold globally in 2013, here are how many were sold in the top three markets:

  China: 22.0 million

  U.S.: 15.6 million

  Western Europe: 12.0 million

  There were 5.7 million premium vehicles sold in 2012 (2013 numbers are still fuzzy); here's how the top three markets stack up:

  Europe: 2.7 million

  U.S: 1.5 million

  China: 1.25 million.

  In 2013, the Chinese auto market grew 14%, whereas the U.S. market grew 8%, and the European market shrunk 2%. This outsized growth is projected to continue, with forecasters predicting that auto sales in the country will grow 8% annually through 2020. Most forecasts are for the U.S. market to grow in the mid-single digits, and for Europe to experience even slower growth.

  Notably, the Chinese premium auto market is projected to grow even faster than the overall market. Forecasts are for sales of high-end autos to grow 12% annually through 2020. This is good news for Tesla, as it's exclusively focused on the premium market and will be for at least the next approximately four years. (Tesla's more affordable generation-three vehicle, which will be priced at about $35,000, is slated to launch in about three years in the U.S., which means its Chinese debut is likely another year out.)

  Here are three key reasons Tesla should experience strong demand for its vehicles in China:

  No. 1: Chinese buyers prefer foreign-made, higher-tech, and "status-y" products

  Tesla's Model S is just the type of consumer product higher-end Chinese buyers gravitate toward: foreign-made, high-tech, and "status-y."

  Why will some higher-income Chinese buyers prefer a Model S over a premium nameplate such as BMW, Volkswagen's Audi, or Daimler's Mercedes? For the same reasons a good number of their U.S. and European counterparts have: its high quality rating (Consumer Reports gave it a 99 out of a possible 100), aesthetic appeal, high safety rating, and free supercharging, among others.

  There's also an additional reason. The Chinese, in general, are especially drawn to the "latest" names in consumer goods. I'd speculate that this has to do with the fact that most of them had so few product choices for so long. Tesla is certainly the "it" name in cars, and this is likely to be a big factor in the Chinese market.

  No. 2: Tesla earned goodwill with its pricing policy

  Contrary to standard auto industry practices, Tesla set the Model S's Chinese base price on par with the U.S. base price. (The total cost will be more due to taxes, customs duties, and transportation costs.) Automakers have traditionally charged Chinese buyers considerably more than they have U.S. and European buyers.

  This was a smart move, and it surely generated much goodwill for Tesla, which should translate into stronger current and future sales.

  It also seems likely that this fair pricing policy should help Tesla in its bargaining with Chinese government officials to get the Model S included in the electric vehicles eligible for government subsidies. Currently, it's not eligible because it's not manufactured in China.

  China's subsidies for electric vehicles were as much as 60,000 yuan (about $9,900) in 2013, and are only being cut 5% in 2014 and 10% in 2015, rather than the planned 10% and 20%, because of the outcry among the populace and other nations for China to curb its horrendous air pollution problem.

  Surely, subsidies will help increase Model S and Model X sales to a degree. However, they'll be a much bigger factor when Tesla launches its Gen III vehicle.

  No. 3: Beijing's license plate lottery

  In an effort to help stem its horrendous air pollution problem, China's capital implemented a draconian license plate lottery system. According to the South China Morning Post:

  New applicants for conventional cars have a 0.8 per cent chance of getting a plate, an unnamed traffic management official told the Beijing News. For applicants with electric cars, however, the lottery is a mere formality. The 20,000 new licence plates due to be issued for electric cars this year would allow -- if the trend continues -- every single applicant to get a licence plate.

  So, if you want to buy a new car in Beijing and not depend upon luck to get one sooner rather than much later, you have one choice -- an electric vehicle. Surely, some high-end buyers are well connected enough to have much better than 1:125 odds of scoring a license plate for a conventional vehicle. That said, not every higher-income person is well-connected enough, or willing to do whatever it takes, to secure a license for a gasoline- or diesel-powered vehicle.

  This factor, along with the EV subsidies, should be of greater importance among mainstream buyers. So, if this lottery system, or a similar one, is in effect when Tesla launches its Gen III vehicle in China, look for it to be a big tailwind to help sales.

0

想看更多 不感兴趣
重复、旧闻
内容质量差
确定
北京智能汽车示范区今年底将一期完工
福田汽车与兴民智通合作发力智能网联汽车
钴价3月滞涨 静待新能源汽车放量
马斯克透露Model3细节:对标奥迪A4前期只有后驱
滴滴即将获得软银50亿美元投资,程维个人股份或缩水至3%以下
新能源汽车七城调查:销售一度停滞,对地补望眼欲穿
王劲宣布离职 百度“四大金刚”全部出走
Model X司机指责Autopilot导致其发生交通事故
第二工厂戛然而止 法拉第未来造车之路再遇波折
换电式出租车前景如何?司机/运营商/生产企业这样回答
济南低速电动车陷困境:商户关门歇业,已波及行业上游
金杯2年拿超亿元补贴免退市 救命稻草能扛多久?
北京4月10日起尾号限行轮换,纯电动汽车不受限
基于启辰R30开发 曝东风俊风ER30申报图
扩充规模和轻资产冲突:共享汽车盈利矛盾待解
丰田与电信运营商NTT开展5G车联网技术合作
头/尾设计将有调整 曝腾势中期改款谍照
马自达欲在2019年推出全新纯电动车
广汽集团47亿加码新能源汽车项目
东旭光电:营收增长近5成 入局新能源汽车强化“高端制造”大战略
下一篇

[2014中国年度绿色汽车]专家评委 吴志新

绿色汽车,评选,吴志新



第三方登录
纯净阅读
意见反馈

反馈和建议 在线回复

第一电动网
Hello world!